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4Q25 Review Pt. 2 | US Q3 GDP Review

4Q25 Review Pt. 2 | US Q3 GDP Review

A quarter where the growth print was high, but the composition of the growth drivers and the measurement uncertainty have to be read separately. 4Q25 Review * Part 1⎯From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off * Part 2⎯US Q3 GDP Review * Part 3⎯A Short-to-Medium-Term Liquidity Scenario Centered

4Q25 Review Pt. 1 | From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off

4Q25 Review Pt. 1 | From Liquidity Fissures to Risk-Off

The chain mechanism behind the Q4 market correction. 1. Structural Backdrop — Sustained Q3 TGA Absorption, ONRRP Depletion, then Continued QT Eroding the Reserve Buffer After the TGA balance bottomed in July / November, system liquidity was absorbed into the TGA through Q3. The market should normally have corrected on the after-

Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA Summary

Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA Summary

The core of the Q4 2025 US Treasury QRA is the decision to freeze coupon (2Y+) issuance at the current level. This gave immediate relief to a market that had feared long-end supply pressure. But the massive deficit-financing need persists, and the Treasury formalized a strategy of meeting

Q4 2025 Macro Liquidity Check

Q4 2025 Macro Liquidity Check

1. Liquidity Environment The indicators most representatively monitored when checking the tape ultimately reduce to "liquidity." "Row while the tide is in" involves two actors — (a) the one who actually lets the water in, and (b) the one who rows on time. Most market participants are

Q2 2025 QRA Update and the Risk of a Q3 Correction

The US Treasury's late-April QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement) is out. A short follow-up analysis. 1. The Q2 2025 QRA Update The Target Balance (End-of-Quarter Cash Balance) is set at $850B, same as Q1, but the following are worth noting: * Q1 estimated vs actual borrowing

April 2025 Market Recap and May Liquidity Outlook

April 2025 Market Recap and May Liquidity Outlook

1. SPX, Treasury Yields, and GOLD After the Trump administration's April 2 reciprocal-tariff announcement, macro- and micro-level uncertainty surged. Funds left equities, the main risk-asset class, and Treasury yields moved differently from Q1 2025. In theory, when equities fall long yields tend to fall too

Q2 2025 US TGA Funding and Liquidity Outlook

Q2 2025 US TGA Funding and Liquidity Outlook

Analyzing the US Treasury TGA balance — one of the core system-liquidity gauges — and a medium-term liquidity outlook through the lens of the debt-ceiling negotiation. 1. Where Things Stand On Jan 21, 2025 the US Treasury entered a Debt Issuance Suspension Period. Issuance had neared the $36.104T